Örgryte IS vs BK Häcken — Integrated Analysis and Prediction
Core Takeaway
BK Häcken (away) is a clear favorite (model win probability 65.1%); The goal profile points to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 around 65%). The 1X2 prices are closely aligned with the model, with no clear value edge. That numerical lean is not promoted to a value recommendation: No Bet.
Model details and input adjustmentsForecast snapshot time · 2026-07-10T18:00:00Z
- Rest days home 6 / away 5: home +0.00, away -0.01
- Manual adjustment: home attack +0.00/home defense +0.00/away attack +0.00/away defense +0.00
Key Data Comparison
| Item | Örgryte IS (home) | BK Häcken (away) |
|---|---|---|
| 开球时间 | 北京时间 7月11日 23:30 / UTC 15:30 | 北京时间 7月11日 23:30 / UTC 15:30 |
| 联赛排名/积分 | 第15，12场 1胜4平7负，11:30，7分 | 第3，11场 5胜5平1负，22:18，20分 |
| 近15场概况 | 2胜，13场不胜 | 6胜，9场不胜 |
| 近况进/失球 | 1.00 / 2.33 | 1.93 / 1.87 |
| 近5主客战绩 | 主场 0胜3平2负，7:9 | 客场 2胜3平0负，8:5 |
| 大2.5比例 | 近况 60%；近5主场 60% | 近况 73%；近5客场 20% |
| BTTS 比例 | 近5主场 100% | 近5客场 60% |
| 近期状态(近5) | 0-3 卡尔马；2-2 埃尔夫斯堡；0-2 哈尔姆斯塔德；2-3 哥德堡；0-2 天狼星 | 2-4 尤尔加登；1-4 哈马比；3-2 哈马比；1-1 埃尔夫斯堡；1-0 米亚尔比 |
| 历史交锋 | 2022友谊赛 2-2；2026友谊赛 0-2 | 2026-02-14 友谊赛 2-0 奥基迪 |
| 关键球员 | Noah Christoffersson、Jerome Tibbling Ugwo、Tobias Sana 为主要进攻点 | Gustav Lindgren、Adrian Svanbäck、Srdjan Hrstic 位列进球热门 |
| 伤停/疑点 | 未见明确新增缺阵 | 未见明确新增缺阵 |
| 盘口摘要 | 1X2 6.25 / 4.50 / 1.42；大2.5 1.44 | BTTS 是 1.53 |
Market Predictions
| Market | My estimate | Market implied | Lean / value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 14.7% / Draw 20.2% / Away 65.1% | 13.2% / 19.0% / 67.9% | Home win is slightly high +1.5pp |
| Asian handicap -1.5 (home cover) | 5.4% | — | comparison only |
| Double chance 1X | 34.9% | — | directional lean |
| Over/Under 2.5 | 65.1% | 65.8% | aligned with market |
| Over/Under 1.5 | 85.6% | — | comparison only |
| Both teams to score (BTTS) | 59.0% | 60.8% | aligned with market |
| Most likely score | 1-2 (9.7%) | — | then 0-2, 1-1 |
O/U reading: The model gives P(0-1 goals)=14.4%, P(exactly 2 goals)=20.5%, and P(3+ goals)=65.1%. The lean is to Over, but exactly two goals is still live, so it should not be treated as safe.
Model Summary
BK Häcken (away) is a clear favorite (model win probability 65.1%); The goal profile points to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 around 65%). The 1X2 prices are closely aligned with the model, with no clear value edge. That numerical lean is not promoted to a value recommendation: No Bet.
The single most likely score is 1-2 (about 9.7%), followed by 0-2, 1-1.
Evidence：近期状态(近5): Örgryte IS 0-3 卡尔马；2-2 埃尔夫斯堡；0-2 哈尔姆斯塔德；2-3 哥德堡；0-2 天狼星 / BK Häcken 2-4 尤尔加登；1-4 哈马比；3-2 哈马比；1-1 埃尔夫斯堡；1-0 米亚尔比。
Market-implied and data-side λ differ by at least 0.25 goals and the disagreement has not been verified.
The data-side and market-side λ estimates diverge materially (home +0.03 / away -0.62 goals): this may reflect information not yet priced in, stale data, or a measurement issue; verify before acting.
Value list (sorted by confidence, decimal odds)
Market-implied and data-side λ differ by at least 0.25 goals and the disagreement has not been verified.
Risk Notes
- The data-side and market-side λ estimates diverge materially (home +0.03 / away -0.62 goals): this may reflect information not yet priced in, stale data, or a measurement issue; verify before acting.
- λ is reverse-solved from prices, so the model is mostly a reconstruction of market consensus; any edge should be treated cautiously.
- Injuries, rotation, weather, pitch conditions, and other off-field factors are not fully priced in.
- Only one comparable odds snapshot is available, so market-movement confirmation is limited.
- Football is high variance. None of these estimates are guarantees; treat them as probabilities only.
Disclaimer + Sources
Odds are de-vigged with the Power method to estimate implied probabilities (correcting favorite-longshot bias); λ is reverse-solved from home win, away win, and Over 2.5 using least squares (solvedMarketLambdas). Model: independent Poisson score matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment; market probabilities are summed from the score matrix. Team data, injuries, and key scorers are treated as unavailable unless supplied. 3 external source(s) are listed below.
External data sources
- Sportsgambler 奥基迪 vs 赫根赔率captured 2026-07-10T18:00:00Z
- SoccerVital 奥基迪 vs 赫根近况、表格与交锋captured 2026-07-10T18:00:00Z
- SportyTrader 奥基迪 vs 赫根赔率概率交叉参考captured 2026-07-10T18:00:00Z
Match Picks · Confidence Index
Confidence is calibrated to historical hit rates in the same probability band: 5★ strongest, 1★ weakest. It is not a guarantee.