Gimcheon Sangmu vs Bucheon FC 1995 — Integrated Analysis and Prediction
Core Takeaway
The model gives a modest lean to Gimcheon Sangmu (home); The goal profile leans lower scoring (Over 2.5 only 41%). On the 1X2 market, Draw has a small positive edge of +2.6pp. That numerical lean is not promoted to a value recommendation: No Bet.
Model details and input adjustmentsForecast snapshot time · 2026-07-10T18:00:00Z
- 金泉尚武 missing J. Byeon(defender·squad):attack +0.00, weaker defense adds to opponent +0.04
- 富川1995 missing J. Kim(midfielder·squad):attack -0.02, weaker defense adds to opponent +0.02
- 富川1995 missing S. Kim(forward·squad):attack -0.06
- Rest days home 6 / away 7: home +0.00, away +0.01
- Manual adjustment: home attack +0.00/home defense +0.00/away attack +0.00/away defense +0.00
Key Data Comparison
| Item | Gimcheon Sangmu (home) | Bucheon FC 1995 (away) |
|---|---|---|
| 开球时间 | 北京时间 7月11日 18:30 / UTC 10:30 | 北京时间 7月11日 18:30 / UTC 10:30 |
| 近10/8场主客战绩 | 主场 0胜5平5负 | 客场 3胜2平3负 |
| 主客场进/失球 | 0.60 / 1.70 | 0.88 / 1.13 |
| 总进球均值 | 主场 2.30 | 客场 2.00 |
| 大2.5次数 | 主场 4/10 | 客场 3/8 |
| BTTS 次数 | 主场 6/10 | 客场 2/8 |
| 近期状态(近5) | 1-1 济州；0-1 全北；2-2 安养；0-3 仁川；1-2 蔚山 | 2-2 大田；2-0 浦项；0-0 全北；0-1 蔚山；0-1 济州 |
| 主客近况 | 近10个主场未胜 | 近8个客场胜率 37.5% |
| 历史交锋 | 2026-04-25 客场 2-0 富川 | 2026-04-25 主场 0-2 金泉 |
| 伤停/疑点 | J. Byeon 停赛 | J. Kim、S. Kim 伤情未知 |
| 盘口摘要 | 1X2 1.94 / 3.20 / 3.55；小2.5 1.65 | 富川 +0.5 为 1.75 |
Market Predictions
| Market | My estimate | Market implied | Lean / value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 44.5% / Draw 30.1% / Away 25.4% | 47.9% / 27.5% / 24.5% | Draw is slightly high +2.6pp |
| Asian handicap -1.5 (home cover) | 21.7% | — | comparison only |
| Double chance 1X | 74.6% | — | directional lean |
| Over/Under 2.5 | 41.0% | 44.1% | negative edge, avoid -3.2pp |
| Over/Under 1.5 | 68.7% | — | comparison only |
| Both teams to score (BTTS) | 47.3% | 50.0% | aligned with market |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (14.1%) | — | then 1-0, 0-0 |
O/U reading: The model gives P(0-1 goals)=31.3%, P(exactly 2 goals)=27.7%, and P(3+ goals)=41.0%. The lean is to Under.
Model Summary
The model gives a modest lean to Gimcheon Sangmu (home); The goal profile leans lower scoring (Over 2.5 only 41%). On the 1X2 market, Draw has a small positive edge of +2.6pp. That numerical lean is not promoted to a value recommendation: No Bet.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (about 14.1%), followed by 1-0, 0-0.
Evidence：近期状态(近5): Gimcheon Sangmu 1-1 济州；0-1 全北；2-2 安养；0-3 仁川；1-2 蔚山 / Bucheon FC 1995 2-2 大田；2-0 浦项；0-0 全北；0-1 蔚山；0-1 济州。
Market-implied and data-side λ differ by at least 0.25 goals and the disagreement has not been verified.
The data-side and market-side λ estimates diverge materially (home -0.90 / away +0.06 goals): this may reflect information not yet priced in, stale data, or a measurement issue; verify before acting.
Value list (sorted by confidence, decimal odds)
Market-implied and data-side λ differ by at least 0.25 goals and the disagreement has not been verified.
Risk Notes
- The data-side and market-side λ estimates diverge materially (home -0.90 / away +0.06 goals): this may reflect information not yet priced in, stale data, or a measurement issue; verify before acting.
- λ is reverse-solved from prices, so the model is mostly a reconstruction of market consensus; any edge should be treated cautiously.
- The supplied injuries and returns are included in λ, but late lineup changes, weather, and pitch conditions can still change the outlook.
- Only one comparable odds snapshot is available, so market-movement confirmation is limited.
- Football is high variance. None of these estimates are guarantees; treat them as probabilities only.
Disclaimer + Sources
Odds are de-vigged with the Power method to estimate implied probabilities (correcting favorite-longshot bias); λ is reverse-solved from home win, away win, and Over 2.5 using least squares (solvedMarketLambdas). Model: independent Poisson score matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment; market probabilities are summed from the score matrix. Team data, injuries, and key scorers are treated as unavailable unless supplied. 3 external source(s) are listed below.
External data sources
- Sportsgambler 金泉尚武 vs 富川1995 赔率与近况captured 2026-07-10T18:00:00Z
- FotMob 金泉尚武 vs 富川1995 赛程captured 2026-07-10T18:00:00Z
- Forebet 金泉尚武 vs 富川1995 伤停captured 2026-07-10T18:00:00Z
Match Picks · Confidence Index
Confidence is calibrated to historical hit rates in the same probability band: 5★ strongest, 1★ weakest. It is not a guarantee.