Gwangju FC vs Pohang Steelers — Integrated Analysis and Prediction
Core Takeaway
Pohang Steelers (away) is a clear favorite (model win probability 58.8%); The goal profile leans lower scoring (Over 2.5 only 40%). On the 1X2 market, Draw has a small positive edge of +2.8pp. That numerical lean is not promoted to a value recommendation: No Bet.
Model details and input adjustmentsForecast snapshot time · 2026-07-10T18:00:00Z
- Rest days home 6 / away 7: home +0.00, away +0.01
- Manual adjustment: home attack +0.00/home defense +0.00/away attack +0.00/away defense +0.00
Key Data Comparison
| Item | Gwangju FC (home) | Pohang Steelers (away) |
|---|---|---|
| 开球时间 | 北京时间 7月11日 18:30 / UTC 10:30 | 北京时间 7月11日 18:30 / UTC 10:30 |
| 联赛排名/战绩 | 第12，16场 1胜5平10负，8进38失 | 第5，16场 7胜4平5负，15进14失 |
| 近10场主客战绩 | 主场 3胜3平4负 | 客场 5胜2平3负 |
| 主客场进/失球 | 1.00 / 1.50 | 1.20 / 1.00 |
| 总进球均值 | 主场 2.50 | 客场 2.20 |
| 大2.5次数 | 主场 3/10 | 客场 2/10 |
| BTTS 次数 | 主场 3/10 | 客场 4/10 |
| 控球率 | 主场 44.9% | 客场 51.1% |
| 角球/被角球 | 主场 2.3 / 5.2 | 客场 3.5 / 3.7 |
| 近期状态(近5) | 1-1 蔚山；0-4 仁川；0-4 全北；0-1 浦项；1-5 蔚山 | 3-2 安养；0-2 富川；1-0 仁川；2-0 大田；1-1 江原 |
| 历史交锋 | 近10次 3胜2平5负；最近两次均 0-1 负浦项 | 近10次 5胜2平3负；2026-04-22 1-0 光州 |
| 伤停/疑点 | 未见明确新增缺阵 | 未见明确新增缺阵 |
| 盘口摘要 | 1X2 5.80 / 3.55 / 1.52；小2.5 1.56 | 浦项 -1 1.98；BTTS 否 1.55 |
Market Predictions
| Market | My estimate | Market implied | Lean / value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 14.5% / Draw 26.8% / Away 58.8% | 13.7% / 23.9% / 62.3% | Draw is slightly high +2.8pp |
| Asian handicap -1.5 (home cover) | 4.2% | — | comparison only |
| Double chance 1X | 41.2% | — | directional lean |
| Over/Under 2.5 | 40.4% | 40.5% | aligned with market |
| Over/Under 1.5 | 68.1% | — | comparison only |
| Both teams to score (BTTS) | 40.8% | 40.5% | aligned with market |
| Most likely score | 0-1 (15.1%) | — | then 0-2, 1-1 |
O/U reading: The model gives P(0-1 goals)=31.9%, P(exactly 2 goals)=27.6%, and P(3+ goals)=40.4%. The lean is to Under.
Model Summary
Pohang Steelers (away) is a clear favorite (model win probability 58.8%); The goal profile leans lower scoring (Over 2.5 only 40%). On the 1X2 market, Draw has a small positive edge of +2.8pp. That numerical lean is not promoted to a value recommendation: No Bet.
The single most likely score is 0-1 (about 15.1%), followed by 0-2, 1-1.
Evidence：近期状态(近5): Gwangju FC 1-1 蔚山；0-4 仁川；0-4 全北；0-1 浦项；1-5 蔚山 / Pohang Steelers 3-2 安养；0-2 富川；1-0 仁川；2-0 大田；1-1 江原。
Market-implied and data-side λ differ by at least 0.25 goals and the disagreement has not been verified.
The data-side and market-side λ estimates diverge materially (home +0.19 / away -0.40 goals): this may reflect information not yet priced in, stale data, or a measurement issue; verify before acting.
Value list (sorted by confidence, decimal odds)
Market-implied and data-side λ differ by at least 0.25 goals and the disagreement has not been verified.
Risk Notes
- The data-side and market-side λ estimates diverge materially (home +0.19 / away -0.40 goals): this may reflect information not yet priced in, stale data, or a measurement issue; verify before acting.
- λ is reverse-solved from prices, so the model is mostly a reconstruction of market consensus; any edge should be treated cautiously.
- Injuries, rotation, weather, pitch conditions, and other off-field factors are not fully priced in.
- Only one comparable odds snapshot is available, so market-movement confirmation is limited.
- Football is high variance. None of these estimates are guarantees; treat them as probabilities only.
Disclaimer + Sources
Odds are de-vigged with the Power method to estimate implied probabilities (correcting favorite-longshot bias); λ is reverse-solved from home win, away win, and Over 2.5 using least squares (solvedMarketLambdas). Model: independent Poisson score matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment; market probabilities are summed from the score matrix. Team data, injuries, and key scorers are treated as unavailable unless supplied. 3 external source(s) are listed below.
External data sources
- Sportsgambler 光州 vs 浦项铁人赔率与近况captured 2026-07-10T18:00:00Z
- FotMob 光州 vs 浦项铁人赛程captured 2026-07-10T18:00:00Z
- SportyTrader 光州 vs 浦项铁人赔率概率交叉参考captured 2026-07-10T18:00:00Z
Match Picks · Confidence Index
Confidence is calibrated to historical hit rates in the same probability band: 5★ strongest, 1★ weakest. It is not a guarantee.