Ulsan HD vs Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors — Integrated Analysis and Prediction
Core Takeaway
The model sees this as close to an even attacking matchup; The goal profile leans lower scoring (Over 2.5 only 44%). On the 1X2 market, Draw has a small positive edge of +2.3pp. That numerical lean is not promoted to a value recommendation: No Bet.
Model details and input adjustmentsForecast snapshot time · 2026-07-10T18:00:00Z
- Rest days home 6 / away 7: home +0.00, away +0.01
- Manual adjustment: home attack +0.00/home defense +0.00/away attack +0.00/away defense +0.00
Key Data Comparison
| Item | Ulsan HD (home) | Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors (away) |
|---|---|---|
| 开球时间 | 北京时间 7月11日 18:30 / UTC 10:30 | 北京时间 7月11日 18:30 / UTC 10:30 |
| 近10场主客战绩 | 主场 5胜1平4负 | 客场 2胜7平1负 |
| 主客场进/失球 | 1.40 / 1.30 | 0.60 / 0.40 |
| 总进球均值 | 主场 2.70 | 客场 1.00 |
| 大2.5次数 | 主场 5/10 | 客场 0/10 |
| BTTS 次数 | 主场 5/10 | 客场 3/10 |
| 控球率 | 主场 45.3% | 客场 53.7% |
| 角球/被角球 | 主场 5.3 / 4.2 | 客场 3.8 / 3.5 |
| 近期状态(近5) | 1-1 光州；0-2 江原；2-1 济州；1-0 富川；2-1 金泉 | 1-2 江原；1-0 金泉；0-0 富川；1-1 安养；4-0 光州 |
| 历史交锋 | 近10次蔚山主场对全北 6胜2平2负 | 2026-04-04 主场 2-0 蔚山 |
| 关键球员 | Yago Cariello 7球；李东庆5球；Marcao 5球 | 李昇祐4球；Tiago Orobo 4球；李东俊3球 |
| 伤停/疑点 | 未见明确新增缺阵 | 未见明确新增缺阵 |
| 盘口摘要 | 1X2 2.50 / 3.15 / 2.50；大2.5 1.86 | BTTS 是 1.64 |
Market Predictions
| Market | My estimate | Market implied | Lean / value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 34.3% / Draw 30.1% / Away 35.6% | 36.1% / 27.9% / 36.1% | Draw is slightly high +2.3pp |
| Asian handicap -1.5 (home cover) | 15.0% | — | comparison only |
| Double chance 1X | 64.4% | — | directional lean |
| Over/Under 2.5 | 43.5% | 48.7% | negative edge, avoid -5.2pp |
| Over/Under 1.5 | 70.9% | — | comparison only |
| Both teams to score (BTTS) | 50.5% | 55.8% | negative edge, avoid -5.3pp |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (14.3%) | — | then 0-0, 0-1 |
O/U reading: The model gives P(0-1 goals)=29.1%, P(exactly 2 goals)=27.3%, and P(3+ goals)=43.5%. The lean is to Under.
Model Summary
The model sees this as close to an even attacking matchup; The goal profile leans lower scoring (Over 2.5 only 44%). On the 1X2 market, Draw has a small positive edge of +2.3pp. That numerical lean is not promoted to a value recommendation: No Bet.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (about 14.3%), followed by 0-0, 0-1.
Evidence：近期状态(近5): Ulsan HD 1-1 光州；0-2 江原；2-1 济州；1-0 富川；2-1 金泉 / Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors 1-2 江原；1-0 金泉；0-0 富川；1-1 安养；4-0 光州。
Market-implied and data-side λ differ by at least 0.25 goals and the disagreement has not been verified.
The data-side and market-side λ estimates diverge materially (home -0.85 / away -0.78 goals): this may reflect information not yet priced in, stale data, or a measurement issue; verify before acting.
Value list (sorted by confidence, decimal odds)
Market-implied and data-side λ differ by at least 0.25 goals and the disagreement has not been verified.
Risk Notes
- The data-side and market-side λ estimates diverge materially (home -0.85 / away -0.78 goals): this may reflect information not yet priced in, stale data, or a measurement issue; verify before acting.
- λ is reverse-solved from prices, so the model is mostly a reconstruction of market consensus; any edge should be treated cautiously.
- Injuries, rotation, weather, pitch conditions, and other off-field factors are not fully priced in.
- Only one comparable odds snapshot is available, so market-movement confirmation is limited.
- Football is high variance. None of these estimates are guarantees; treat them as probabilities only.
Disclaimer + Sources
Odds are de-vigged with the Power method to estimate implied probabilities (correcting favorite-longshot bias); λ is reverse-solved from home win, away win, and Over 2.5 using least squares (solvedMarketLambdas). Model: independent Poisson score matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment; market probabilities are summed from the score matrix. Team data, injuries, and key scorers are treated as unavailable unless supplied. 3 external source(s) are listed below.
External data sources
- Sportsgambler 蔚山HD vs 全北现代汽车赔率与近况captured 2026-07-10T18:00:00Z
- FotMob 蔚山HD vs 全北现代汽车赛程captured 2026-07-10T18:00:00Z
- Sofascore 蔚山HD vs 全北现代汽车排名与赛程captured 2026-07-10T18:00:00Z
Match Picks · Confidence Index
Confidence is calibrated to historical hit rates in the same probability band: 5★ strongest, 1★ weakest. It is not a guarantee.