Mjällby AIF vs AIK Solna — Integrated Analysis and Prediction
Core Takeaway
The model favors Mjällby AIF (home); The total-goals expectation is neutral. On the 1X2 market, Draw has a small positive edge of +2.2pp. That numerical lean is not promoted to a value recommendation: No Bet.
Model details and input adjustmentsForecast snapshot time · 2026-07-10T18:00:00Z
- Rest days home 8 / away 6: home +0.03, away +0.00
- Manual adjustment: home attack +0.00/home defense +0.00/away attack +0.00/away defense +0.00
Key Data Comparison
| Item | Mjällby AIF (home) | AIK Solna (away) |
|---|---|---|
| 开球时间 | 北京时间 7月11日 21:00 / UTC 13:00 | 北京时间 7月11日 21:00 / UTC 13:00 |
| 近10场主客战绩 | 主场 6胜2平2负 | 客场 4胜3平3负 |
| 主客场进/失球 | 1.30 / 0.60 | 1.50 / 1.30 |
| 总进球均值 | 主场 1.90 | 客场 2.80 |
| 大2.5次数 | 主场 2/10 | 客场 7/10 |
| BTTS 次数 | 主场 3/10 | 客场 8/10 |
| 控球率 | 主场 57.1% | 客场 51.2% |
| 角球/被角球 | 主场 6.7 / 5.0 | 客场 5.4 / 4.6 |
| 近期状态(近5) | 4-4 天狼星；1-1 哥德堡；1-1 埃尔夫斯堡；0-1 赫根；4-1 代格福什 | 2-1 哥德堡；0-3 天狼星；2-1 哈马比；1-1 韦斯特罗斯；2-4 尤尔加登 |
| 历史交锋 | 2025-07-20 主场 2-0 AIK；近6次主场对AIK 2胜3平1负 | 2025-05-11 主场 2-1 米亚尔比 |
| 关键球员 | Jacob Bergström 5球；Abdoulie Manneh 3助 | Johan Hove 4球；Zadok Yohanna 3助 |
| 伤停/疑点 | 未见明确新增缺阵 | 未见明确新增缺阵 |
| 盘口摘要 | 1X2 1.81 / 3.70 / 3.75；大2.5 1.73 | BTTS 是 1.65 |
Market Predictions
| Market | My estimate | Market implied | Lean / value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 52.6% / Draw 26.2% / Away 21.2% | 52.4% / 24.0% / 23.7% | Draw is slightly high +2.2pp |
| Asian handicap -1.5 (home cover) | 29.5% | — | comparison only |
| Double chance 1X | 78.8% | — | directional lean |
| Over/Under 2.5 | 51.2% | 53.7% | aligned with market |
| Over/Under 1.5 | 76.7% | — | comparison only |
| Both teams to score (BTTS) | 53.3% | 56.1% | aligned with market |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (12.5%) | — | then 1-0, 2-1 |
O/U reading: The model gives P(0-1 goals)=23.3%, P(exactly 2 goals)=25.5%, and P(3+ goals)=51.2%. Over and Under are close to a coin flip, so passing is reasonable.
Model Summary
The model favors Mjällby AIF (home); The total-goals expectation is neutral. On the 1X2 market, Draw has a small positive edge of +2.2pp. That numerical lean is not promoted to a value recommendation: No Bet.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (about 12.5%), followed by 1-0, 2-1.
Evidence：近期状态(近5): Mjällby AIF 4-4 天狼星；1-1 哥德堡；1-1 埃尔夫斯堡；0-1 赫根；4-1 代格福什 / AIK Solna 2-1 哥德堡；0-3 天狼星；2-1 哈马比；1-1 韦斯特罗斯；2-4 尤尔加登。
Market-implied and data-side λ differ by at least 0.25 goals and the disagreement has not been verified.
The data-side and market-side λ estimates diverge materially (home -0.47 / away -0.53 goals): this may reflect information not yet priced in, stale data, or a measurement issue; verify before acting.
Value list (sorted by confidence, decimal odds)
Market-implied and data-side λ differ by at least 0.25 goals and the disagreement has not been verified.
Risk Notes
- The data-side and market-side λ estimates diverge materially (home -0.47 / away -0.53 goals): this may reflect information not yet priced in, stale data, or a measurement issue; verify before acting.
- λ is reverse-solved from prices, so the model is mostly a reconstruction of market consensus; any edge should be treated cautiously.
- Injuries, rotation, weather, pitch conditions, and other off-field factors are not fully priced in.
- Only one comparable odds snapshot is available, so market-movement confirmation is limited.
- Football is high variance. None of these estimates are guarantees; treat them as probabilities only.
Disclaimer + Sources
Odds are de-vigged with the Power method to estimate implied probabilities (correcting favorite-longshot bias); λ is reverse-solved from home win, away win, and Over 2.5 using least squares (solvedMarketLambdas). Model: independent Poisson score matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment; market probabilities are summed from the score matrix. Team data, injuries, and key scorers are treated as unavailable unless supplied. 3 external source(s) are listed below.
External data sources
- Sportsgambler 米亚尔比 vs AIK 赔率与近况captured 2026-07-10T18:00:00Z
- FotMob 米亚尔比 vs AIK 赛程captured 2026-07-10T18:00:00Z
- ESPN 米亚尔比 vs AIK 赛程captured 2026-07-10T18:00:00Z
Match Picks · Confidence Index
Confidence is calibrated to historical hit rates in the same probability band: 5★ strongest, 1★ weakest. It is not a guarantee.