France vs Spain — Integrated Analysis and Prediction
Core Takeaway
The model gives a modest lean to France (home); The total-goals expectation is neutral. The 1X2 prices are closely aligned with the model, with no clear value edge. That numerical lean is not promoted to a value recommendation: No Bet.
Model details and input adjustmentsForecast snapshot time · 2026-07-14T15:06:00Z
- Rest days home 5 / away 4: home -0.01, away -0.03
- Manual adjustment: home attack +0.00/home defense +0.00/away attack +0.00/away defense +0.00
Key Data Comparison
| Item | France (home) | Spain (away) |
|---|---|---|
| 开球时间 | 达拉斯 7月14日 14:00 / 北京 7月15日 03:00 | 达拉斯 7月14日 14:00 / 北京 7月15日 03:00 |
| 本届世界杯战绩 | 6胜0平0负，16进2失 | 5胜1平0负，11进1失 |
| 本届场均进/失球 | 2.67 / 0.33 | 1.83 / 0.17 |
| 本届场均 xG/xGA | 1.56 / 0.57（Squawka） | 1.76 / 0.36（Squawka） |
| 射门/射正（前6场） | 110 / 47 | 110 / 44 |
| 被射门/被射正 | 38 / 10 | 34 / 7 |
| 场均控球率 | 58.5% | 65.8% |
| 传球成功率 | 88.4%（3339次传球） | 90.4%（3971次传球） |
| 零封场次 | 4 / 6 | 5 / 6 |
| 角球 | 41 | 44 |
| 近10场战绩（全部赛事） | 9胜0平1负，25进7失，场均2.5球 | 7胜3平0负，18进3失，场均1.8球 |
| 近10场场均角球 | 6.1 | 7.1 |
| 上一场出场评分（均值） | 7.19 | 6.89 |
| 淘汰赛路径 | 3-0 瑞典；1-0 巴拉圭；2-0 摩洛哥 | 3-0 奥地利；1-0 葡萄牙；2-1 比利时 |
| 历史交锋 | 38战13胜；唯一世界杯交锋 2006 年 3-1 胜 | 38战18胜；近2次交锋均胜（Euro 2024 2-1；2025欧国联 5-4） |
| 近10次交锋（2005年以来） | 2胜1平7负，大球率30% | 7胜1平2负；近3次交锋2胜1负 |
| Opta 90分钟模拟 | 胜 43.1% / 平 27.2% | 胜 29.7% / 平 27.2% |
| 核心球员 | Mbappé 8球3助；Dembélé 5球2助；Olise 5助 | Yamal 本届1球、10次射正；Merino 连续两场淘汰赛替补绝杀 |
| 伤停/恢复 | 无确定缺阵；Tchouaméni（大腿）已恢复合练且预计首发；Koné（膝）、Thuram（小腿）存疑；Mbappé 已确认身体无碍 | RFEF：26人全员参加最后合练；无确定缺阵；Pino（锁骨）、Víctor Muñoz（肌肉）存疑；Nico Williams 正在恢复最佳状态 |
| 预计首发 | Maignan; Koundé, Upamecano, Saliba, Digne; Tchouaméni, Rabiot; Dembélé, Olise, Doué; Mbappé | Simón; Porro, Cubarsí, Laporte, Cucurella; Rodri, Fabián; Yamal, Olmo, Baena; Oyarzabal |
| 裁判 | Iván Barton（萨尔瓦多） | Iván Barton（萨尔瓦多） |
| 天气 | 达拉斯体育场 微雨，23°C~24°C | 达拉斯体育场 微雨，23°C~24°C |
| 亚洲让球盘 | 平手/半球（法国 -0.25），主水约0.96~1.10 | 受让平手/半球，客水约0.79~0.88 |
| 角球盘口 | 总角球初盘9.5 → 即时降至8.5 | 即时大约0.80~0.85 / 小约0.88~1.00 |
| 盘口摘要 | Pinnacle 即时 2.47 / 3.14 / 3.32；大2.5 1.95 | 55家即时均值 2.39 / 3.22 / 3.19；小2.5 1.93 |
Market Predictions
| Market | My estimate | Market implied | Lean / value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 40.3% / Draw 29.1% / Away 30.6% | 39.7% / 31.0% / 29.3% | aligned with market |
| Asian handicap -1.5 (home cover) | 19.4% | — | comparison only |
| Double chance 1X | 69.4% | — | directional lean |
| Over/Under 2.5 | 46.9% | 49.7% | aligned with market |
| Over/Under 1.5 | 73.5% | — | comparison only |
| Both teams to score (BTTS) | 52.9% | — | directional lean |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (13.9%) | — | then 1-0, 0-0 |
O/U reading: The model gives P(0-1 goals)=26.5%, P(exactly 2 goals)=26.7%, and P(3+ goals)=46.9%. Over and Under are close to a coin flip, so passing is reasonable.
Model Summary
The model gives a modest lean to France (home); The total-goals expectation is neutral. The 1X2 prices are closely aligned with the model, with no clear value edge. That numerical lean is not promoted to a value recommendation: No Bet.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (about 13.9%), followed by 1-0, 0-0.
Evidence：本届场均 xG/xGA: France 1.56 / 0.57（Squawka） / Spain 1.76 / 0.36（Squawka）；射门/射正（前6场）: France 110 / 47 / Spain 110 / 44。
Market-implied and data-side λ differ by at least 0.25 goals and the disagreement has not been verified.
Recent market movement: home-win implied 42.3% -> 39.7% (-2.7pp); away-win implied 29.6% -> 29.3% (-0.3pp); Over 2.5 46.9% -> 49.7% (+2.9pp). The price move reflects a shift in market consensus. Based on 3 pre-match snapshots, across 3 provider set(s). The data-side and market-side λ estimates diverge materially (home -0.29 / away -0.08 goals): this may reflect information not yet priced in, stale data, or a measurement issue; verify before acting.
Value list (sorted by confidence, decimal odds)
Market-implied and data-side λ differ by at least 0.25 goals and the disagreement has not been verified.
Risk Notes
- The data-side and market-side λ estimates diverge materially (home -0.29 / away -0.08 goals): this may reflect information not yet priced in, stale data, or a measurement issue; verify before acting.
- λ is reverse-solved from prices, so the model is mostly a reconstruction of market consensus; any edge should be treated cautiously.
- Injuries, rotation, weather, pitch conditions, and other off-field factors are not fully priced in.
- Cup and qualification ties can become more cautious; if either side sits deeper than expected, Overs and BTTS both suffer.
- Football is high variance. None of these estimates are guarantees; treat them as probabilities only.
Disclaimer + Sources
Odds are de-vigged with the Power method to estimate implied probabilities (correcting favorite-longshot bias); λ is reverse-solved from home win, away win, and Over 2.5 using least squares (solvedMarketLambdas). Model: independent Poisson score matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment; market probabilities are summed from the score matrix. Team data, injuries, and key scorers are treated as unavailable unless supplied. 11 external source(s) are listed below.
External data sources
- FIFA 法国 vs 西班牙世界杯半决赛官方预览captured 2026-07-14T15:02:00Z
- RFEF 西班牙赛前官方报道、赛程与交锋captured 2026-07-14T15:02:00Z
- RFEF 西班牙最后一练：26人全员参训captured 2026-07-14T15:02:00Z
- Oddschecker US 法国 vs 西班牙 90分钟赔率与大小球captured 2026-07-14T15:02:00Z
- Sofascore 世界杯半决赛前6场整体数据对比captured 2026-07-14T15:02:00Z
- Squawka 2026世界杯半决赛队 xG/xGA 累计captured 2026-07-14T15:02:00Z
- Opta Analyst 法国 vs 西班牙 25,000次赛前模拟captured 2026-07-14T15:02:00Z
- Opta Analyst 法国进攻与西班牙防守深度数据captured 2026-07-14T15:02:00Z
- Sports Illustrated 预计首发与伤情恢复captured 2026-07-14T15:02:00Z
- Sports Mole 伤停与停赛清单captured 2026-07-14T15:02:00Z
Match Picks · Confidence Index
Confidence is calibrated to historical hit rates in the same probability band: 5★ strongest, 1★ weakest. It is not a guarantee.