伏伊伏丁那 vs 费伦茨瓦罗斯 — Integrated Analysis and Prediction
Core Takeaway
The model gives a modest lean to 费伦茨瓦罗斯 (away); The total-goals expectation is neutral. The 1X2 prices are closely aligned with the model, with no clear value edge. That numerical lean is not promoted to a value recommendation: No Bet.
Model details and input adjustmentsForecast snapshot time · 2026-07-10T01:49:08-07:00
- 伏伊伏丁那 missing S. Stanisavljević(forward·squad·doubtful):attack -0.03
- Manual adjustment: home attack +0.00/home defense +0.00/away attack +0.00/away defense +0.00
Key Data Comparison
| Item | 伏伊伏丁那 (home) | 费伦茨瓦罗斯 (away) |
|---|---|---|
| 赛事阶段 | 欧联资格赛第一轮首回合，主场 | 欧联资格赛第一轮首回合，客场 |
| 近期/赛季状态 | 近42场26胜；近6主场胜率约67% | Sky 列出近6场5胜1负，近期火力强 |
| 近期场均进球 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| 近期场均失球 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| 欧战/强度 | 近年欧战经验相对有限，主场是主要加分 | 欧战经验更足；上季欧联淘汰赛与 Braga、Ludogorets 交手 |
| 最近结果 | 3-0 Novi Pazar；此前客场不敌 OFK Beograd | 3-0 Zalaegerszeg、5-0 Ujpest、2-0 Paks |
| 主客场战绩 | 近6主场4胜左右 | 近6客场3胜，客战能力可用 |
| 历史交锋 | 无近期正式交锋记录 | 无近期正式交锋记录 |
| 盘口/市场 | 主胜2.87，受让但非明显下风 | 客胜2.25，市场轻微倾向客队 |
| 关键球员 | 主场进攻依赖边路推进和定位球 | 进攻端多点得分，近期连续零封胜场 |
| 伤停/疑点 | S. Stanisavljević 背伤存疑 | 暂无可靠公开伤停 |
Market Predictions
| Market | My estimate | Market implied | Lean / value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 32.0% / Draw 27.3% / Away 40.7% | 31.6% / 27.1% / 41.2% | aligned with market |
| Asian handicap -1.5 (home cover) | 14.6% | — | comparison only |
| Double chance 1X | 59.3% | — | directional lean |
| Over/Under 2.5 | 53.9% | 54.3% | aligned with market |
| Over/Under 1.5 | 78.7% | — | comparison only |
| Both teams to score (BTTS) | 58.4% | — | directional lean |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (12.9%) | — | then 1-2, 2-1 |
O/U reading: The model gives P(0-1 goals)=21.3%, P(exactly 2 goals)=24.8%, and P(3+ goals)=53.9%. Over and Under are close to a coin flip, so passing is reasonable.
Model Summary
The model gives a modest lean to 费伦茨瓦罗斯 (away); The total-goals expectation is neutral. The 1X2 prices are closely aligned with the model, with no clear value edge. That numerical lean is not promoted to a value recommendation: No Bet.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (about 12.9%), followed by 1-2, 2-1.
Evidence：近期/赛季状态: 伏伊伏丁那 近42场26胜；近6主场胜率约67% / 费伦茨瓦罗斯 Sky 列出近6场5胜1负，近期火力强；近期场均进球: 伏伊伏丁那 1.8 / 费伦茨瓦罗斯 2.0。
The stored forecast timestamp is not before kickoff, so this record cannot be treated as an auditable pre-match value recommendation.
Recent market movement: home-win implied 29.7% -> 31.6% (+1.9pp); away-win implied 42.9% -> 41.2% (-1.7pp); Over 2.5 55.8% -> 54.3% (-1.5pp). The price move reflects a shift in market consensus. Based on 2 pre-match snapshots. λ is reverse-solved from prices, so the model is mostly a reconstruction of market consensus; any edge should be treated cautiously.
Value list (sorted by confidence, decimal odds)
The stored forecast timestamp is not before kickoff, so this record cannot be treated as an auditable pre-match value recommendation.
Risk Notes
- λ is reverse-solved from prices, so the model is mostly a reconstruction of market consensus; any edge should be treated cautiously.
- The supplied injuries and returns are included in λ, but late lineup changes, weather, and pitch conditions can still change the outlook.
- The stored forecast timestamp is at or after kickoff; retain the record for history, but do not count it as an auditable pre-match recommendation.
- Cup and qualification ties can become more cautious; if either side sits deeper than expected, Overs and BTTS both suffer.
- Football is high variance. None of these estimates are guarantees; treat them as probabilities only.
Disclaimer + Sources
Odds are de-vigged with the Power method to estimate implied probabilities (correcting favorite-longshot bias); λ is reverse-solved from home win, away win, and Over 2.5 using least squares (solvedMarketLambdas). Model: independent Poisson score matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment; market probabilities are summed from the score matrix. Team data, injuries, and key scorers are treated as unavailable unless supplied. 5 external source(s) are listed below.
Match Picks · Confidence Index
Confidence is calibrated to historical hit rates in the same probability band: 5★ strongest, 1★ weakest. It is not a guarantee.