法国 vs 摩洛哥 — Integrated Analysis and Prediction
Core Takeaway
法国 (home) is a clear favorite (model win probability 55.7%); The total-goals expectation is neutral. On the 1X2 market, Away win has a small positive edge of +3.1pp.
- 法国 missing 奥雷利安·琼阿梅尼(midfielder·core):attack -0.12, weaker defense adds to opponent +0.08
- 法国 missing 马库斯·图拉姆(forward·important·doubtful):attack -0.07
- 摩洛哥 missing 伊斯梅尔·萨伊巴里(midfielder·core·doubtful):attack -0.06, weaker defense adds to opponent +0.04
- 摩洛哥 missing 查迪·里亚德(defender·important·doubtful):attack +0.00, weaker defense adds to opponent +0.05
- Rest days home 5 / away 5: home -0.01, away -0.01
- Manual adjustment: home attack +0.00/home defense +0.00/away attack +0.00/away defense +0.00
Key Data Comparison
| Item | 法国 (home) | 摩洛哥 (away) |
|---|---|---|
| 本届世界杯战绩 | 5胜0平0负，14进球/2失球 | 3胜2平0负，10进球/4失球(含荷兰战点球晋级) |
| 小组赛战绩 | 3胜0平0负，10进球/2失球，I组第1 | 2胜1平0负，6进球/3失球，C组第2 |
| 本届场均进球 | 2.8 | 2.0 |
| 本届场均失球 | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| xG 攻/防 | 1.80 / 0.74 | 1.40 / 0.82 |
| 射门/射正(场均) | 17.8 / 7.8 | 12.2 / 5.0 |
| 控球率(场均) | 60.5% | 60.4% |
| 机会创造(场均) | 12.4 | 8.0 |
| 零封场次(近4) | 3 | 2 |
| 近期状态(近5) | 5胜 | 3胜2平 |
| 淘汰赛路径 | 3-0 瑞典；1-0 巴拉圭 | 1-1(点球3-2) 荷兰；3-0 加拿大 |
| 历史交锋 | 近3次2胜1平；2022世界杯半决赛2-0胜 | 近3次0胜1平2负；2022世界杯半决赛0-2负 |
| 关键球员 | 姆巴佩本届7球；登贝莱4球；奥利塞5助 | 萨伊巴里小组赛3球但伤疑；乌纳希上轮2球；哈基米右路和定位球威胁 |
| 伤停/疑点 | 琼阿梅尼大概率缺阵；马库斯·图拉姆存疑 | 萨伊巴里出战存疑；查迪·里亚德存疑 |
Market Predictions
| Market | My estimate | Market implied | Lean / value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 55.7% / Draw 26.6% / Away 17.8% | 61.3% / 24.1% / 14.6% | Away win is slightly high +3.1pp |
| Asian handicap -1.5 (home cover) | 31.2% | — | comparison only |
| Double chance 1X | 82.2% | — | conservative lean (fair 1.22) |
| Over/Under 2.5 | 45.8% | 48.9% | negative edge, avoid -3.1pp |
| Over/Under 1.5 | 72.5% | — | comparison only |
| Both teams to score (BTTS) | 47.3% | — | leans No |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (12.6%) | — | then 1-0, 2-0 |
O/U reading: The model gives P(0-1 goals)=27.5%, P(exactly 2 goals)=26.8%, and P(3+ goals)=45.8%. Over and Under are close to a coin flip, so passing is reasonable.
Model Summary
The single most likely score is 1-1 (about 12.6%), followed by 1-0, 2-0.
Value list (sorted by confidence, decimal odds)
- ConservativeDouble chance 1X — model 82.2%, downside protectedfair 1.22
- BalancedUnder 2.5 — model 54.2%, positive edge +3.1ppfair 1.84
- AggressiveNo · BTTS — model 52.7%fair 1.90
Risk Notes
- The data-side and market-side λ estimates diverge materially (home -0.38 / away +0.32 goals): this may reflect information not yet priced in, stale data, or a measurement issue; verify before acting.
- λ is reverse-solved from prices, so the model is mostly a reconstruction of market consensus; any edge should be treated cautiously.
- Injuries, rotation, weather, pitch conditions, and other off-field factors are not fully priced in.
- Football is high variance. None of these estimates are guarantees; treat them as probabilities only.
Disclaimer + Sources
Odds are de-vigged with the Power method to estimate implied probabilities (correcting favorite-longshot bias); λ is reverse-solved from home win, away win, and Over 2.5 using least squares (solvedMarketLambdas). Model: independent Poisson score matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment; market probabilities are summed from the score matrix. Team data, injuries, and key scorers are treated as unavailable unless supplied.
Match Picks · Confidence Index
Confidence index: 5★ strongest, 1★ weakest. Ratings reflect model probability strength only and are not guarantees.