山东泰山 vs 云南玉昆 — Integrated Analysis and Prediction
Core Takeaway
山东泰山 (home) is a clear favorite (model win probability 58.6%); The goal profile points to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 around 73%). The 1X2 prices are closely aligned with the model, with no clear value edge. That numerical lean is not promoted to a value recommendation: No Bet.
Model details and input adjustmentsForecast snapshot time · 2026-07-08T22:10:52
- Rest days home 6 / away 7: home +0.00, away +0.01
- Manual adjustment: home attack +0.00/home defense +0.00/away attack +0.00/away defense +0.00
Key Data Comparison
| Item | 山东泰山 (home) | 云南玉昆 (away) |
|---|---|---|
| 联赛排名/积分 | 第7，17场8胜3平6负，30:28，21分 | 第4，17场7胜3平7负，31:29，24分 |
| 近10战绩 | 4胜2平4负 | 4胜3平3负 |
| 近10场均进球 | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| 近10场均失球 | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| 射门/射正(场均) | 14.7 / 4.8 | 12.4 / 4.7 |
| 被射门/被射正(场均) | 15.5 / 5.2 | 11.7 / 4.7 |
| 控球率(场均) | 49.1% | 51.2% |
| 角球/被角球(场均) | 3.7 / 5.6 | 4.0 / 5.2 |
| 主客场战绩 | 近10主场6胜3平1负，2.3进/1.2失 | 近10客场3胜3平4负，1.6进/1.7失 |
| 大小球趋势 | 近10场7场大2.5；近10主场8场大2.5 | 近10场7场大2.5；近10客场7场大2.5 |
| 双方进球趋势 | 近10场8场BTTS；近10主场9场BTTS | 近10场8场BTTS；近10客场9场BTTS |
| 近期结果 | 04/07 客场0-2北京；27/06 客场5-1辽宁铁人；20/06 足协杯5-0广西恒宸 | 03/07 主场2-1河南；26/06 客场2-4青岛海牛；21/06 足协杯4-2苏州东吴 |
| 历史交锋 | 2026-03-21 客场0-4负；2025主场1-1 | 近3次对山东2胜1平，2026首回合4-0胜 |
| 关键球员 | 克雷桑近样本8球4助，泽卡4球，马德鲁加3球 | 奥斯卡·塔蒂·马里图7球，克莱伯4球；叶楚贵/克莱伯等有助攻 |
| 伤停/疑点 | 上轮十人输球后防守纪律和轮换压力是变量 | 近4场联赛均有失球，客场连续3场不胜 |
Market Predictions
| Market | My estimate | Market implied | Lean / value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 58.6% / Draw 20.5% / Away 20.9% | 61.5% / 19.3% / 19.3% | Away win is slightly high +1.6pp |
| Asian handicap -1.5 (home cover) | 38.3% | — | comparison only |
| Double chance 1X | 79.1% | — | directional lean |
| Over/Under 2.5 | 73.5% | 73.7% | aligned with market |
| Over/Under 1.5 | 90.2% | — | comparison only |
| Both teams to score (BTTS) | 69.6% | — | directional lean |
| Most likely score | 2-1 (9.0%) | — | then 1-1, 3-1 |
O/U reading: The model gives P(0-1 goals)=9.8%, P(exactly 2 goals)=16.7%, and P(3+ goals)=73.5%. The lean is to Over, but exactly two goals is still live, so it should not be treated as safe.
Model Summary
山东泰山 (home) is a clear favorite (model win probability 58.6%); The goal profile points to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 around 73%). The 1X2 prices are closely aligned with the model, with no clear value edge. That numerical lean is not promoted to a value recommendation: No Bet.
The single most likely score is 2-1 (about 9.0%), followed by 1-1, 3-1.
Evidence：近10场均进球: 山东泰山 2.0 / 云南玉昆 1.7；近10场均失球: 山东泰山 1.9 / 云南玉昆 1.6。
Market-implied and data-side λ differ by at least 0.25 goals and the disagreement has not been verified.
The data-side and market-side λ estimates diverge materially (home -0.50 / away +0.28 goals): this may reflect information not yet priced in, stale data, or a measurement issue; verify before acting.
Value list (sorted by confidence, decimal odds)
Market-implied and data-side λ differ by at least 0.25 goals and the disagreement has not been verified.
Risk Notes
- The data-side and market-side λ estimates diverge materially (home -0.50 / away +0.28 goals): this may reflect information not yet priced in, stale data, or a measurement issue; verify before acting.
- λ is reverse-solved from prices, so the model is mostly a reconstruction of market consensus; any edge should be treated cautiously.
- Injuries, rotation, weather, pitch conditions, and other off-field factors are not fully priced in.
- Only one comparable odds snapshot is available, so market-movement confirmation is limited.
- Football is high variance. None of these estimates are guarantees; treat them as probabilities only.
Disclaimer + Sources
Odds are de-vigged with the Power method to estimate implied probabilities (correcting favorite-longshot bias); λ is reverse-solved from home win, away win, and Over 2.5 using least squares (solvedMarketLambdas). Model: independent Poisson score matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment; market probabilities are summed from the score matrix. Team data, injuries, and key scorers are treated as unavailable unless supplied.
Match Picks · Confidence Index
Confidence is calibrated to historical hit rates in the same probability band: 5★ strongest, 1★ weakest. It is not a guarantee.