索菲亚中央陆军 vs 德里城 — Integrated Analysis and Prediction
Core Takeaway
索菲亚中央陆军 (home) is a clear favorite (model win probability 71.8%); The total-goals expectation is neutral. On the 1X2 market, Draw has a small positive edge of +3.4pp.
- Manual adjustment: home attack +0.00/home defense +0.00/away attack +0.00/away defense +0.00
Key Data Comparison
| Item | 索菲亚中央陆军 (home) | 德里城 (away) |
|---|---|---|
| 赛事阶段 | 欧联资格赛第一轮首回合，主场 | 欧联资格赛第一轮首回合，客场 |
| 近10战绩 | 5胜2平3负 | 2胜4平4负 |
| 近10场均进球 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| 近10场均失球 | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| 射门/射正(场均) | 12.4 / 3.6 | 13.1 / 4.4 |
| 被射门/被射正(场均) | 9.5 / 2.7 | 10.3 / 3.4 |
| 控球率(场均) | 51.9% | 59.0% |
| 角球/被角球(场均) | 4.8 / 5.1 | 5.1 / 4.3 |
| 主客场战绩 | 近10主场7胜2平1负，1.5进/0.7失 | 近10客场1胜5平4负，1.1进/1.4失 |
| 近期结果 | 最近正式战0-1不敌卢多戈雷茨；热身3-0 Marek | 最近2-4不敌 Waterford，此前2-0 Drogheda |
| 关键球员 | Mohamed Brahimi 近样本3球；James Eto'o 2助 | Robert Slevin、Adam O'Reilly 上轮进球；Nick Twisk 新援入选名单 |
| 伤停/疑点 | 暂无可靠公开伤停 | 多名新援入选 UEFA 名单，磨合是变量 |
Market Predictions
| Market | My estimate | Market implied | Lean / value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 71.8% / Draw 19.3% / Away 8.9% | 76.2% / 15.9% / 7.9% | Draw is slightly high +3.4pp |
| Asian handicap -1.5 (home cover) | 48.4% | — | comparison only |
| Double chance 1X | 91.1% | — | conservative lean (fair 1.10) |
| Over/Under 2.5 | 54.3% | 56.6% | aligned with market |
| Over/Under 1.5 | 78.6% | — | comparison only |
| Both teams to score (BTTS) | 43.7% | — | leans No |
| Most likely score | 2-0 (13.9%) | — | then 1-0, 3-0 |
O/U reading: The model gives P(0-1 goals)=21.4%, P(exactly 2 goals)=24.3%, and P(3+ goals)=54.3%. Over and Under are close to a coin flip, so passing is reasonable.
Model Summary
The single most likely score is 2-0 (about 13.9%), followed by 1-0, 3-0.
Value list (sorted by confidence, decimal odds)
- ConservativeDouble chance 1X — model 91.1%, downside protectedfair 1.10
- BalancedOver 2.5 — model 54.3%, directional leanfair 1.84
- AggressiveNo · BTTS — model 56.3%fair 1.78
Risk Notes
- The data-side and market-side λ estimates diverge materially (home -1.03 / away +0.35 goals): this may reflect information not yet priced in, stale data, or a measurement issue; verify before acting.
- λ is reverse-solved from prices, so the model is mostly a reconstruction of market consensus; any edge should be treated cautiously.
- Injuries, rotation, weather, pitch conditions, and other off-field factors are not fully priced in.
- Cup and qualification ties can become more cautious; if either side sits deeper than expected, Overs and BTTS both suffer.
- Football is high variance. None of these estimates are guarantees; treat them as probabilities only.
Disclaimer + Sources
Odds are de-vigged with the Power method to estimate implied probabilities (correcting favorite-longshot bias); λ is reverse-solved from home win, away win, and Over 2.5 using least squares (solvedMarketLambdas). Model: independent Poisson score matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment; market probabilities are summed from the score matrix. Team data, injuries, and key scorers are treated as unavailable unless supplied.
Match Picks · Confidence Index
Confidence index: 5★ strongest, 1★ weakest. Ratings reflect model probability strength only and are not guarantees.