哈伊杜克 vs 日利纳 — Integrated Analysis and Prediction
Core Takeaway
哈伊杜克 (home) is a clear favorite (model win probability 66.8%); The goal profile points to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 around 57%). On the 1X2 market, Draw has a small positive edge of +2.6pp.
- Manual adjustment: home attack +0.00/home defense +0.00/away attack +0.00/away defense +0.00
Key Data Comparison
| Item | 哈伊杜克 (home) | 日利纳 (away) |
|---|---|---|
| 赛事阶段 | 欧联资格赛第一轮首回合，主场 | 欧联资格赛第一轮首回合，客场 |
| 近15战绩 | 9胜3平3负 | 5胜4平6负 |
| 近15场均进球 | 2.07 | 1.53 |
| 近15场均失球 | 1.0 | 1.53 |
| 近期状态 | 4连胜，近5不败；近3场热身均零封 | 夏季热身/近况不稳，Football Whispers 称近6不胜 |
| 主客场趋势 | Forebet: 43场22胜，近20主场13胜 | Forebet: 41场21胜，但近6客场3负 |
| 大小球趋势 | 近6主场4场大2.5 | 近10场6场大2.5 |
| 历史交锋 | 近2次0胜1平1负 | 近2次1胜1平0负 |
| 盘口/市场 | 主胜约1.38，主队明显热门 | 客胜约6.50，定位弱势但有历史交锋心理优势 |
| 关键球员 | 主场进攻效率高，定位球和边路传中是重点 | 反击速度和前场转换是主要威胁 |
| 伤停/疑点 | 暂无可靠公开伤停 | 暂无可靠公开伤停 |
Market Predictions
| Market | My estimate | Market implied | Lean / value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 66.8% / Draw 21.0% / Away 12.2% | 69.5% / 18.3% / 12.1% | Draw is slightly high +2.6pp |
| Asian handicap -1.5 (home cover) | 43.6% | — | comparison only |
| Double chance 1X | 87.8% | — | conservative lean (fair 1.14) |
| Over/Under 2.5 | 56.7% | 55.8% | aligned with market |
| Over/Under 1.5 | 80.3% | — | comparison only |
| Both teams to score (BTTS) | 50.2% | — | leans Yes |
| Most likely score | 2-0 (11.9%) | — | then 1-0, 1-1 |
O/U reading: The model gives P(0-1 goals)=19.7%, P(exactly 2 goals)=23.6%, and P(3+ goals)=56.7%. The lean is to Over, but exactly two goals is still live, so it should not be treated as safe.
Model Summary
The single most likely score is 2-0 (about 11.9%), followed by 1-0, 1-1.
Value list (sorted by confidence, decimal odds)
- ConservativeDouble chance 1X — model 87.8%, downside protectedfair 1.14
- BalancedOver 2.5 — model 56.7%, directional leanfair 1.76
- AggressiveYes · BTTS — model 50.2%fair 1.99
Risk Notes
- The data-side and market-side λ estimates diverge materially (home -0.19 / away +0.39 goals): this may reflect information not yet priced in, stale data, or a measurement issue; verify before acting.
- λ is reverse-solved from prices, so the model is mostly a reconstruction of market consensus; any edge should be treated cautiously.
- Injuries, rotation, weather, pitch conditions, and other off-field factors are not fully priced in.
- Cup and qualification ties can become more cautious; if either side sits deeper than expected, Overs and BTTS both suffer.
- Football is high variance. None of these estimates are guarantees; treat them as probabilities only.
Disclaimer + Sources
Odds are de-vigged with the Power method to estimate implied probabilities (correcting favorite-longshot bias); λ is reverse-solved from home win, away win, and Over 2.5 using least squares (solvedMarketLambdas). Model: independent Poisson score matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score adjustment; market probabilities are summed from the score matrix. Team data, injuries, and key scorers are treated as unavailable unless supplied.
Match Picks · Confidence Index
Confidence index: 5★ strongest, 1★ weakest. Ratings reflect model probability strength only and are not guarantees.